Key Takeaways

From the 2026 Economic Assessment on Proposals to Transfer Ownership of Federal Lands to the State of Idaho

Full report will be published on March 20, 2026.

The goal of this study is to identify the likely costs of federal land transfers to the State of Idaho. This study does not take a position on the transfer of public lands to state ownership. It examines the potential implications for Idaho taxpayers, the outdoor recreation industry, tourism, and Idaho citizens whose access to public lands has been integral to their way of life for generations. Two scenarios were conducted: 1) Base Case (reported here) and 2) A lower-bound estimation included in the main report.

• Estimated average annual direct USFS, BLM, and PILT / SRS expenditures were $837.7 million, which would likely be shifted onto the state taxpayers in a land transfer.

• Factoring in the multiplier effects, the reduction in economic activity from the loss of these direct expenditures includes: $954 million in gross state product; $641 million in total compensation (Payroll / Benefits); 7,491 jobs; $92.8 million in state and local taxes.

• The base-case potential funding shortfall represents about 15.6% of the General Fund revenues ($837.7 million / $5.4 billion). In addition, the state could lose $92.8 million in tax revenue from federal agency spending. The lower-case scenario accounts for approximately 9.3% of the General Fund.

• This report assumes that public- and private-sector outputs would remain the same under potential state ownership as under current federal ownership. If ownership changed, public land use would almost certainly change to generate the revenues needed to cover the costs now funded by the federal government.

• Estimated total jobs of agribusiness, forestry and wood products, mining, and visitor tourism are 244,175, or about 25% of Idaho’s total employment. Total tourism and recreation jobs are estimated at 76,470.

• The effects of land transfers could have long-term implications for the entire economy, as most Idaho families and businesses have direct or indirect ties to outdoor recreation activities.